Numbers are up in Suwannee

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March 9, 2010

Population jumps 7% after last year's drop

By Jeff Waters, Democrat Reporter The Suwannee Democrat Tue Mar 09, 2010, 12:21 PM EST

Suwannee County is expected to add 2,870 residents in 2010, according to a University of Florida study.

The state's population is on the way up as well, with about 23,000 new residents expected to flock to the Sunshine State.

It's a reversal in both cases from last year, when Suwannee's population fell for the first time since 1972 and Florida's numbers dropped for the first time since World War II.

The UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research Department conducted the study, which shows estimated growth between April 2009 and April 2010. The bureau's director noted the housing market is starting to pick up in a number of places around the state, which could explain the increase.

"Based on changes in electric customer data, we believe Florida's population has increased slightly over the past year," said Stan Smith. "This may be an indication the state's economy is no longer declining at the rate it had been before."

Last year's study by UF projected a loss of 58,000 residents, with Suwannee losing about 1.7 percent of its population. That was the first time Suwannee has experienced a population decrease since the university began gathering such data in 1972. Smith said the recession and the housing bust were the main factors for the decrease.

"It appears the state's population loss was a one-year occurrence," said Smith. "Even so, Florida's growth will be very slow during the early years of the new decade."

Smith said it will take another four or five years for Florida to return to its normal average annual population gain of 300,000. He said the economy has a huge impact on Florida's population growth because of the attraction of jobs, followed by retirees and foreign immigrants.

"Even retirees are affected by economic conditions because of the housing market," said Smith. "If it's difficult for them to sell their homes, they may have to delay a retirement move to Florida even if that is what they had been planning to do."

A 2008 United States Census Bureau estimate (the latest year for which census information was available) reported 39,802 residents in the county. Smith had previously explained the difference is in the way data is collected. UF uses data from residential electric hookups, building permits and, to a lesser extent, homestead exemption claims. He said the U.S. Census Bureau uses return addresses on tax returns, births and deaths and Medicare data.

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